Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Response to article #10 : The pluses of a regional grand bargain
Article # 10: The pluses of a regional grand bargain
- The Obama administration has declared a peace process concerning Afghanistan and Pakistan and re-establishing communication with Syria and Iran.
-Obama is considering speaking with some of the Taliban in Afghanistan to wind down the war there.
- Washington and Tehran have not talked in a sustained way for 30 years.
- The list of things the US and the West do not know about Iran is long
- Iran will settle for a deal on its nuclear enrichment capabilities; whether it wants a nuclear bomb
- Iran has already achieved its important first goal, despite intense American-led threats, warnings and sanctions.
- It has established a spinning-centrifuge-based system for enriching uranium. Now confronted with the Obama approach of talking rather than only sanctioning, the Iranians now face many new possibilities.
-Iran (like Syria on a smaller scale) is strategically placed to both talk and work on many fronts. It has communications withI raq, Afghanistan, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas. This provides opportunities for the US.
- Iranian leadership has fear of bargaining with the US, because of the tension between Washington and Tehran.
- Achieving a grand bargain is complex.
- A grand bargain on Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and Arab-Israeli peacemaking would require satisfying needs for all sides.